Volume 96, Issue 73
Friday, February 7, 2003

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Predictable Oscars

By Mark Polishuk
Gazette Staff

The Academy Award nominations will be announced on Tuesday, so it's time for some predictions. The theme this year seems to be that each category has two solid favourites, two probable nominees that won't win, and a wide-open fifth spot.

BEST PICTURE


Locks: Chicago, The Hours. Probably Chicago because of its more mainstream appeal.

Likely: Adaptation, Gangs of New York. A nomination for Gangs is a bit more tenuous because of the film's violence and the fact that it underwhelmed some critics.

Last: About Schmidt, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers and The Pianist are all in the race, and let's not forget the populist dark horse, My Big Fat Greek Wedding. My vote is with The Pianist.

BEST ACTOR

Locks: Either Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs) will win his second Oscar, or Jack Nicholson (Schmidt) will win his record-tying fourth.

Likely: Nicolas Cage (Adaptation), Adrien Brody (Pianist).

Last: Probably Richard Gere (Chicago), despite the fact that his was actually a supporting role.

BEST ACTRESS

Locks: Nicole Kidman (Hours), Julianne Moore (Far From Heaven). These two Hours castmates will duke it out for Oscar's love, possibly like the Bud Light girls.

Likely: Meryl Streep (Hours) and Renée Zellweger (Chicago) should probably be in the locks section for the nomination, but they're less likely to actually win.

Last: My vote is for everyone's favourite big, not-really-fat Greek bride, Nia Vardalos. Salma Hayek (Frida) and Diane Lane (Unfaithful) could sneak in, but are hurt from the fact that their movies sucked.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Locks: Chris Cooper (Adaptation) has won many critics' awards, and the Academy will surely nominate the legendary Paul Newman (Road to Perdition).

Likely: Ed Harris has been getting a lot of buzz over his small part in The Hours, and the Academy will nominate Christopher Walken (Catch Me If You Can) because of both his performance and the chance for a hilarious speech.

Last: The question is if John C. Reilly's three small, but crucial, roles in Hours, Chicago AND Gangs will add up to one nomination. If not him, then Dennis Quaid (Far From Heaven).

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Locks: Meryl Streep (Adaptation) and Catherine Zeta-Jones (Chicago) are the front-runners.

Likely: Kathy Bates (Schmidt) has been tabbed for this category for months, and Julianne Moore (Hours) will have to be content with her better chance at Best Actress.

Last: Queen Latifah (Chicago).

DIRECTOR

Locks: There are actually three: Stephen Daldry (Hours) and Rob Marshall (Chicago), whose films are the favourites for picture, and Martin Scorsese (Gangs), the director who's done everything besides win an Oscar.

Likely: Spike Jonze (Adaptation) .

Last: Peter Jackson's fate will rest on if the Academy considers LotR to be one big film or three distinct chapters. If not him, then either statutory rapist Roman Polanski (Pianist) or statutory filmmaker Steven Spielberg (Catch Me).

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