The Academy Award nominations will be announced on Tuesday, so it's time for some predictions. The theme this year seems to be that each category has two solid favourites, two probable nominees that won't win, and a wide-open fifth spot.
Locks: Chicago, The Hours. Probably
Chicago because of its more mainstream appeal.
Likely: Adaptation, Gangs of New York.
A nomination for Gangs is a bit more tenuous because of the film's
violence and the fact that it underwhelmed some critics.
Last: About Schmidt, Lord of the Rings:
The Two Towers and The Pianist are all in the race, and
let's not forget the populist dark horse, My Big Fat Greek Wedding.
My vote is with The Pianist.
Locks: Either Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs) will
win his second Oscar, or Jack Nicholson (Schmidt) will win his
Likely: Nicolas Cage (Adaptation), Adrien Brody
Last: Probably Richard Gere (Chicago), despite
the fact that his was actually a supporting role.
Locks: Nicole Kidman (Hours), Julianne Moore
(Far From Heaven). These two Hours castmates will duke
it out for Oscar's love, possibly like the Bud Light girls.
Likely: Meryl Streep (Hours) and Renée Zellweger
(Chicago) should probably be in the locks section for the nomination,
but they're less likely to actually win.
Last: My vote is for everyone's favourite big, not-really-fat
Greek bride, Nia Vardalos. Salma Hayek (Frida) and Diane Lane
(Unfaithful) could sneak in, but are hurt from the fact that
their movies sucked.
Locks: Chris Cooper (Adaptation) has won many
critics' awards, and the Academy will surely nominate the legendary Paul
Newman (Road to Perdition).
Likely: Ed Harris has been getting a lot of buzz over
his small part in The Hours, and the Academy will nominate Christopher
Walken (Catch Me If You Can) because of both his performance
and the chance for a hilarious speech.
Last: The question is if John C. Reilly's three small,
but crucial, roles in Hours, Chicago AND Gangs
will add up to one nomination. If not him, then Dennis Quaid (Far
Locks: Meryl Streep (Adaptation) and Catherine
Zeta-Jones (Chicago) are the front-runners.
Likely: Kathy Bates (Schmidt) has been tabbed
for this category for months, and Julianne Moore (Hours) will
have to be content with her better chance at Best Actress.
Last: Queen Latifah (Chicago).
Locks: There are actually three: Stephen Daldry (Hours)
and Rob Marshall (Chicago), whose films are the favourites for
picture, and Martin Scorsese (Gangs), the director who's done
everything besides win an Oscar.
Likely: Spike Jonze (Adaptation) .
Last: Peter Jackson's fate will rest on if the Academy
considers LotR to be one big film or three distinct chapters.
If not him, then either statutory rapist Roman Polanski (Pianist)
or statutory filmmaker Steven Spielberg (Catch Me).